$4.63Mover the cap
All proposalsTBL / NSH
Kuch trade
cw_user_7wl2bj8wNov 1, 2026
18%
chance it happens
Model says TBL says no.
Vote below to see if readers agree.
$16.5Mcap space after
Who says no?
12 votesAnalysis
Tampa Bay likely passes: two firsts and useful players do not make up for removing Kucherov from a Cup contender, especially with $11.5 million in long-term cap hits coming back. Nashville would get the best player, but spending its own first on a 33-year-old pending UFA is a poor bet for a rebuilding club, so this deal is unlikely from either side.
Assets
- 2027 1st round pick
- 2028 1st round pick
Why the model says so
Tampa Bay would lose its offensive centerpiece during a Cup push and take on five years each of Drury and Skjei. The two firsts do not solve the immediate scoring hole.
Nashville would get an elite winger, but its own 2027 first could be a premium pick. Paying that price for Kucherov without a deal beyond this season is hard to justify during a retool.
The deal
Tampa Bay Lightning acquire Ryan O'Reilly, Reid Schaefer, Jack Drury, Brady Skjei, a 2027 1st-round pick (NSH) and a 2028 1st-round pick (COL) from the Nashville Predators for Nikita Kucherov.
Team by team
TBL
Tampa Bay is a Cup contender, and Kucherov remains its elite scorer: he had 130 points last season and 18 in 13 games this season. O’Reilly adds two-way center play, while Drury adds defensive depth, but neither replaces Kucherov’s offense. Kucherov and O’Reilly both carry expiring deals.
NSH
Nashville would give up its own 2027 first and Colorado’s 2028 first, plus Schaefer, a 2022 first-rounder still trying to establish himself. Tampa Bay would also take on Drury’s $4.5 million cap hit and Skjei’s $7 million cap hit for five seasons each; Skjei’s no-move clause means he would have to approve the trade. Kucherov’s $9.5 million hit expires after this season, and his modified no-trade clause could limit Nashville’s ability to acquire him.