Readers and the model agree: MTL says no.
They are in a rising contention window and Marchenko fills a clear top-six RW need with RFA control, but two unprotected firsts plus a prospect for a non-elite winger is a heavy overpay that exposes them to major downside if injuries or regression hit; management probably pushes to protect a pick or reduce the futures cost.
On the playoff fringe, they would hate losing a 26-year-old 67-point winger, but two unprotected firsts from a non-juggernaut plus a 19-year-old RW prospect is a very strong return that accelerates their asset base and gives flexibility before Marchenko’s more expensive RFA deal, so they likely accept even if it hurts short term.
Montréal Canadiens acquire a 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick and Alexander Zharovsky from the Columbus Blue Jackets; Columbus Blue Jackets acquire Kirill Marchenko from the Montréal Canadiens.
Montréal converts two future first-round picks and a 19-year-old unsigned RW prospect (no cap hit yet, likely still in junior/Europe) into a 26-year-old established top-six right wing in Kirill Marchenko, who just posted 67 points in 76 games and is an arbitration-eligible RFA after this season at a $3.85M cap hit, fitting their ascending contention window but at a steep futures cost.
Columbus cashes in Marchenko’s prime years for significant long-term capital—two unprotected MTL firsts (2027, 2028) plus a young RW lottery ticket in Zharovsky—shifting some focus from immediate fringe-playoff pushes toward adding higher-upside assets and cap flexibility once Marchenko’s next, more expensive RFA deal would have kicked in.
Value tilts clearly toward Columbus: two unprotected firsts from a good but not elite team plus a prospect is an overpay for a strong but non-star winger, making this an aggressive, win-now gamble by Montréal that feels richer than typical market prices for this player tier. It is plausible if Montréal is extremely high on Marchenko as a long-term core piece, but more likely they would try to protect at least one pick or downgrade one to a second-rounder.