Understanding Depth Charts

Why line combinations are the best way to understand a team’s strategy, performance and outlook.

A hockey GM is ultimately a resource allocator. Their job is to figure out how much to pay for a combination of skills across different positions, so they win the Stanley Cup. Since that by itself, would be too easy, they also have to do it under constraints: they can only spend a certain amount of money, and - to be truly successful - they have to do it consistently. To put together a dynasty that wins multiple cups.

Now ultimately you get judged by the outcome (winning) but along the way, there are indicators for how things are going. Wins/Losses are data points at the team level. But some of that is due to temporary things - luck, injuries, etc. So it’s useful to zoom in and see whether you’re getting the expected performance per cap dollar you’ve allocated.

One way to do it is to look at your depth chart. When we talk about depth charts, it can mean either positional depth charts, projected lineups, or deployed lines. At CapWages, we believe the most version of that, is not a positional depth chart, or a projected depth chart for the next game. We believe, it’s best to look at a team’s deployed lines, their associated statistics and their cap impact. And here’s why...

Depth Charts: The Team Hierarchy 📊

A depth chart is a hierarchical listing of players by position, outlining starters, backups, and reserves. It’s useful for assessing team talent and depth. For instance, a depth chart might rank centers, wingers, and defensemen, indicating primary players and available substitutes.

What Depth Charts Show:

• Team Structure: They provide a quick overview of the team’s lineup, showing starters and backups.
• Depth and Potential: Depth charts highlight the team’s roster depth, revealing available talent at each position.

Limitations of Depth Charts:

While depth charts are useful for understanding a team’s potential lineup, they do not reflect how players are actually deployed during games. They don’t account for in-game strategies, player chemistry, or coach adjustments throughout the season.

Projected Lineups: Game-Day Expectations 📝

A projected lineup predicts which players will start in an upcoming game, typically based on media reports and practice observations. They’re most useful if you’re betting on a game or updating fantasy hockey rosters.

What Projected Lineups Show:

• Immediate Decisions: They reflect anticipated game-day choices by the coaching staff.
• Starting Players: Indicate which players are expected to take the ice at the game’s start.

Limitations of Projected Lineups:

Projected lineups provide a snapshot of expected starters but have drawbacks: they don’t reflect historical trends or player chemistry from previous games, and they can’t capture the in-game adjustments coaches often make. Lines change based on game flow, performance, or scenarios like power plays, limiting the projected lineup’s accuracy beyond the opening shifts. A coach might experiment with a line to start, then revert to a more familiar combination based on performance.

Lines: Real In-Game Deployment 🏒

When we talk about lines, we mean the actual groupings of forwards or defensemen who play together during a game. Coaches often identify player pairs with strong chemistry and rotate other players around them to adapt to situations.

Why Focusing on Pairs and Their Stats Matters:

Analyzing frequent line deployments and their stats offers a deeper understanding of a team’s strategy:

• Performance Metrics: Examining stats like Corsi For % (CF%), Expected Goals % (xGoals%), and Physicality % (Phys%) reveals how effective the lines are in controlling play, generating scoring opportunities, and impacting the game’s physical aspect.
• Contract Status: For lines generating key outcomes (e.g., scoring chances, puck possession), it’s important to understand cap allocation and contract situations—will this be sustainable, or is there a ticking time bomb?

Our Approach: Analyzing Key Pairs and Their Impact 💡

To understand a team, it’s essential to analyze actual line combinations used in games and their stats. Depth charts and projected lineups offer limited perspectives—they don’t account for in-game adjustments, evolving strategies, or player chemistry over time. They also lack detailed statistical analysis revealing the effectiveness of player combinations.

We focus on presenting these player pairs on their most frequently used lines and show associated stats. This illustrates how players are actually deployed and helps evaluate their performance. By also looking at contracts and cap allocation, we get an understanding of a team’s structure and strategy—not just for this season but for the future.

How We Use These Stats:

• Data-Driven Insights: We provide detailed stats for each player pair, including TOI, GP, CF%, xGoals%, and Phys%, offering a comprehensive view of their performance.
• Identifying Strengths and Weaknesses: By analyzing these metrics, we pinpoint which lines are excelling and which may need adjustments.
• Strategic Analysis: Understanding how much of a team’s resources (cap) are allocated to generate particular outcomes helps us better understand the situation a team is in and where they’re headed

Next time you’re analyzing a team, take a closer look at how they’re actually using their players, what they’re getting out of it and how much they’re paying for it. That should give you an insight into the team strategy and their potential future outlook.